Swedish e-commerce is growing broadly – but the playing field is being redrawn

First, the numbers

PostNord reports 7 percent growth for Q1. Svensk Handel estimates April revenue at SEK 14.6 billion, up 3 percent year over year. The average basket per customer has gone from SEK 2,288 to SEK 2,388.

Those are solid numbers, especially considering the world isn't exactly calm right now – the Strait of Hormuz, new tariffs and general uncertainty should reasonably have weighed more heavily than they did.

But averages hide a lot. The interesting story lies in how different categories are developing.

Who's pulling ahead – and who's pulling back

Pharmacies (+13%) continue as a growth engine, year after year. They are tilting more clearly toward groceries in their online assortment, and the VAT cut on food on April 1 has quickly started to shape prices.

Furniture and home (+11%) is lifted by the housing market. Lower amortisation requirements and a higher mortgage cap are already having an effect, and historically a more active housing market means more renovations and home purchases.

Sport and leisure (+10%) got a boost from a snowy winter and the Winter Olympics. The football World Cup this summer should add further momentum.

Groceries (+9%) are driven by home deliveries and subscriptions. Customers want convenience and recurring relationships, not one-off purchases.

Books and media (+6%) are turning upward after a tough 2025.

Apparel and footwear (+5%) grows steadily, above all in shoes and premium. At the same time, pressure from second-hand platforms is rising.

Consumer electronics (+4%) faces headwinds from a higher electronics tax and tougher competition from abroad.

DIY/building (+3%) was held back by a cold February, but signals for H2 look cautiously positive.

This is where it's really happening: three things that matter more than the Q1 numbers

1. On July 1, the EU closes the door on Temu and Shein

This is the single biggest event for Swedish e-commerce this year, and I think it's getting far too little attention.

The decision was taken in December 2025 by EU finance ministers and has since been confirmed by several outlets, including Reuters, SVT Nyheter, Göteborgs-Posten and the trade publication Market. From July 1, 2026, a EUR 3 duty per product category applies to packages under EUR 150 from non-EU countries. The temporary rule runs until July 1, 2028, when a more permanent reform of the EU customs code is planned. In November a handling fee is also added for all online purchases from outside the EU, regardless of value.

Worth noting: the EUR 3 applies per product category in the same package, not per package. The EU Council illustrates it themselves: an order containing one silk blouse and two wool blouses counts as two categories and therefore costs EUR 6 in fees. For someone who buys mixed assortments on Temu, the total cost can grow quickly.

The backdrop is the sheer volume. According to the European Commission, 4.6 billion low-value packages entered the Union in 2024, and 91 percent of them came from China – a doubling versus the year before.

The question is what consumers will actually do once prices rise. There are several clues:

• PostNord's 2025 annual report states that 70 percent of consumers are prepared to abandon or sharply reduce their cross-border purchases once the rules take effect.
• Prisjakt and Opinion have shown that 90 percent of Swedes who shop from Temu and Shein already feel some level of concern – mainly around chemicals, product quality and sustainability. Two out of three have been dissatisfied with a purchase.
• A Novus survey shows that 70 percent of Swedes have a negative view of Temu, while only 7 percent are positive. Many still shop there anyway – it's price that has tied the consumer to the platform, not loyalty.

In other words: the customer base is price-driven and disloyal. As the price advantage shrinks, there isn't much else keeping them there.

For Swedish e-commerce players, this is a real opportunity to win customers back – especially in apparel, consumer electronics and automotive accessories, where cross-border trade has grown the most. But the opportunity won't come automatically. The ones who are well positioned when it hits will be the ones who capture it.

Concretely: how does your assortment look in the categories where you've lost the most? How do you communicate total cost and delivery time in your ads? Those are questions worth working through now, not after the summer.

2. AI is changing how people search – and AEO is becoming a must

Only 8 percent used AI for their most recent e-commerce purchase. At the same time, 41 percent use AI several times a week in everyday life – and among 18–29-year-olds the figure is 55 percent. That gap will close, the only question is how fast.

The interesting thing isn't really whether AI completes the purchase. It's how AI is changing the path to it. When people search in Claude, ChatGPT, Gemini or Perplexity instead of Google, their query is broken down across several dimensions at once: what should the product do, who is it for, in what situation, at what price, what do others say. You are no longer competing for a single keyword – you are competing across a whole cluster of sub-questions in parallel.

And AI pulls its answer from multiple sources: your own site, your product feeds, reviews, comparison sites, external guides. That means how you show up outside your own site becomes at least as important as how you show up on it.

This is usually called AEO – Answer Engine Optimization. It doesn't replace SEO. It's built on top of it. Clear structure, fast site, smooth UX and good product data are still the foundation. The difference is that product data now needs to describe who the product suits and in which situation it solves a problem – not just what it is.

Google released its Omnichannel Index 2026 together with IMPACT Commerce this spring. The average score for the AI discipline: 19 percent. Only 42 percent of brands have product pages that AI agents can interpret reliably. That's a big gap – and a corresponding opportunity for those who act now.

3. Second-hand is no longer a side project

Half of all consumers have used a circular e-commerce service in the past three months. Vinted, Sellpy and Plick are growing fast, especially among 18–49-year-olds.

But – and this is the figure I find most interesting – only 3 percent have bought second-hand from a traditional e-commerce retailer. And 21 percent didn't even know it was possible.

So the demand is there. What's missing is awareness. For established e-tailers considering a second-hand track, the challenge is less about logistics and tech and more about how the offer is integrated into the regular buying journey. Zalando is a good example: 40 percent of their global orders last year were mixed baskets with both new and pre-owned items in the same transaction. Loyalty no longer requires the customer to pick a side.

International e-commerce – stable, but stay alert

48 percent have bought from abroad in the past year. China remains in first place (24%), Germany loses some ground (17%), the US ticks up slightly (10%).

What's worth noting is that Swedish e-commerce exports are growing the other way. 60 percent of e-commerce companies already sell abroad, and export shipments rose 23 percent in Q1. Norway, Denmark and Finland are the most common destinations. Expanding abroad does require discipline, though. Local consumer laws, payment and delivery options and language adaptation are not details – they decide whether customers convert or drop out at checkout. Marketplaces like Zalando and Amazon can be a good entry point, but the goal should be to gradually lead customers into your own channels.

What I think you should focus on over the next six months

Three things, if I had to sum it up.

Start with AEO before AI takes more of the search share. The first step is product data. Is it contextual enough for an AI to match it against an entire buying situation – not just a keyword? The second is presence outside your own site: reviews, comparison sites, guides. That's where AI draws its overall picture of your brand.

Position yourself for July 1. Which categories are losing the most to Temu and Shein today? How will you capture that demand once the price picture changes?

Make use of the broad category growth – but keep macro on the radar. Purchasing power is improving, rates are stable, inflation is below target. Those are good conditions. At the same time, consumer confidence is weak and the Strait of Hormuz is a wildcard that can affect freight and energy prices. Build a campaign calendar that can scale up if the situation strengthens in H2, and have a plan B if it worsens.

In summary

It's easy to get stuck in the quarterly numbers – and Q1 2026 gives us good news to lean on. But the important changes are happening in parallel: AI is changing the buying journey, the EU is closing the foreign price advantage, and circular consumption is going mainstream.

2026 could be the year Swedish e-commerce turns its resilience into growth. But only for those who act on the changes instead of waiting them out.

Summarised by Linus Andersson at Kvantic. With the help and inspiration of AI.